ALGIERS – The sectors of industry, building, public works, housing, agriculture and marketable and non-marketable services will contribute to boost growth in 2019, despite the decrease in hydrocarbon prices, said Sunday Minister of Finance Abderrahmane Raouya while presenting the Finance Bill 2019 in front of the People National Assembly’s finance and budget committee.
Under the bill, growth rate is expected to stand at 2.9% during 2019 and non-hydrocarbon growth rate at 3.2%, Raouya told the meeting chaired by the President of the Committee Toufik Torche in the presence of Minister of Relations with Parliament, Mahdjoub Bedda.
As part of the Finance Bill 2019 forecasts, the oil export volume will see a 1% decline, to $ 33.2 billion while the non-hydrocarbon growth in terms of volume is expected to raise thanks significant shares of the sectors of construction and public works (4.7%), industry (5%), agriculture (3.7%) and marketable and non-marketable services (1.8%).
The bill has been drafted on the basis of a $50/barrel benchmark price of the Algerian "Sahara Blend" oil and on the basis of a market price at $60 per barrel.
As for the exchange rate of the Algerian dinar, it is expected to be around 118 dinars / dollar, the average annual price for the period 2019-2021 with inflation rates standing at 4.5% in 2019, 3.9% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021.
In the medium term, the economic growth is planned under the Finance Bill to rise to 3.4% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021 with an average non-hydrocarbon growth of 3.1% in 2020-21.
The hydrocarbon exports are also forecast to rise 4.2% in 2020 with revenues estimated at $34.5 billion. But in 2021, they are expected to increase by 2% making revenues of $35.2 billion.
Reflecting the measures taken by the government to regulate imports, the bill forecasts a decline in goods imports to $44 billion in 2019, to $42.9 billion in 2020, and to $41.8 billion in 2021.
As a result, the trade balance deficit will gradually shrink from $10.4 billion in 2019 to $ 8.2 billion in 2020 and $6.4 billion in 2021.
Over the period from 2019 to 2021, the balance of payments is expected to reach $ 17.2 billion in 2019, and $14.2 billion in 2020, then $14 billion in 2021.
This decline would lead the shrinking of the exchange reserves down to $62 billion in 2019, to $47.8 billion in 2020 then to $33.8 billion in 2021.
Sunday, 28 October 2018 17:35